IPCC reviewers pointed out wildfire mistake, ignored by authors
In a previous post I mentioned that the IPCC's claim of reduced tourism due to wildfires (section 14.2.7 of WGII) didn't match their source. They claimed there were millions of dollars in tourism losses, but their source did not make that claim. One of the reasons the claim was false was explained in their own source, a British Columbia Tourism newsletter. It said:
It is possible that the stronger performance of regions far from the fires is due to travellers who changed their plans to visit these regions instead of those heavily affected by the forest fires.
Barbara Boxer relied heavily on both the IPCC and Pachauri
Yesterday in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Barbara Boxer made the following statement:
In my opening statement, I didn’t quote one international scientist or IPCC report. … We are quoting the American scientific community here.
This is in response to Sen Inhofe's minority report about climategate, blasting the IPCC. Boxer doesn't even attempt to defend the IPCC, she simply says that she used American scientists in her opening statement. This is true, in this particular case, but it certainly hasn't been historically. Boxer has relied on the IPCC several times as the Chair of the EPW, and she has relied on Pachauri as well. Lets start at the beginning.
When the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report was issued in April 2007, Boxer released a statement. From the statement:
Senator Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, made the following remarks today regarding today's report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) after she received a briefing by telephone from Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC:
"This powerful report confirms the very real dangers that global warming poses for us all. The effects of global warming will be felt throughout the world."
IPCC references at least 29 news articles in AR4
Several news articles have already been pointed out as citations in the IPCC's AR4, but there are many that haven't been found. I have found 29, though I am sure there are probably some I missed. This doesn't include press releases, White House briefings, product catalogs, and other various non-peer-reviewed references (maybe another post), but simply news articles. Some are from UN bodies, like the FAO, but most are magazines or newspapers, including but certainly not limited to the following: Rocky Mountain News, New York Times, The Seattle Times, Better Roads, Business Week, Associated Press, Environment News Service, Climbing News, BTO News (birdwatching), Foreign Affairs, The Economist, and the Asia Times. I'd give you the location of each but that would take forever and I'm sure you are smart enough to find it with Google. Here's the list:
Marris, E., 2005: First tests show flood waters high in bacteria and lead. News@Nature, 437, 301-301.
Dey, P., 2006: Climate change devastating Latin America frogs. University of Alberta. http://www.expressnews.ualberta.ca/article.cfm?id=7247.
Butler, A., 2002: Tourism burned: visits to parks down drastically, even away from flames. Rocky Mountain News. July 15, 2002.
IPCC burned on claim of wildfires affecting Canadian tourism
In the IPCC's Fourth Assessment report, section 14.2.7 Tourism and recreation of WGII, they make the following claim (emphasis mine):
"Climate variability affects many segments of this growing economic sector [Tourism]. For example, wildfires in Colorado (2002) and British Columbia (2003) caused tens of millions of dollars in tourism losses by reducing visitation and destroying infrastructure (Associated Press, 2002; Butler, 2002; BC Stats, 2003)."
Lets look at the references they cited. Associated Press, 2002 is referenced as:
Associated Press, 2002: Rough year for rafters. September 3, 2002.
Butler, 2002 is referenced as:
Butler, A., 2002: Tourism burned: visits to parks down drastically, even away from flames. Rocky Mountain News. July 15, 2002.
IPCC claims three page paper is a ‘study’
Another questionable citation from the IPCC's AR4. In WGIII, section 5.3.3 Aviation. They are talking about a study done by the group, Green by Design, about new aircraft designs:
"Concepts considered included alternative aircraft configurations such as the blended wing body and the laminar flying wing, and the use of an unducted fan (open rotor) power plant. The study concluded that these two aircraft concepts could offer significant fuel burn reduction potential compared with a conventional aircraft design carrying an equivalent payload. Other studies (Leifsson and Mason, 2005) have suggested similar results."
What are the other studies? Leifsson and Mason is referenced as:
Leifsson, L.T. and W.H. Mason, 2005: The Blended Wing Body Aircraft, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg, VA, accessed 30/05/07.
Virginia Tech, not bad. Until you look at the paper. It is only three pages long, unless you include the pictures pasted in, then it is eight. There are only six references, and four of them are for the five pages of pictures. Of the two real references, one is a presentation the authors gave at a conference.
IPCC bases claim of 1.3 billion agricultural workers on news article, changes title
It is now clear that the IPCC has made several factual errors in their Fourth Assessment Report. The Himalayan glaciers will not melt by 2035, and more than half of the Netherlands are not below sea level. I may have found another error. If it is not an error, it is certainly some very sloppy work.
In AR4, WGIII, section 8.4.5 Potential implications of mitigation options for sustainable development:
"Agriculture contributes 4% of global GDP (World Bank, 2003) and provides employment to 1.3 billion people (Dean, 2000)."
That is a fairly specific number, 1.3 billion. What census, survey, or study did they cite that came up with this number? Dean, 2000 is referenced as:
Dean, T., 2000: Development: agriculture workers too poor to buy food. UN IPS, New York, 36 pp.
The UN IPS is the United Nations Inter Press Service. They cited a news article. This article was difficult to find, but I did get it.
IPCC cited multiple Master’s Students in AR4, some unpublished
The news that the IPCC cited a master's student's dissertation caused quite a stir. However, this citation wasn't alone in the IPCC's AR4. There are nine citations of Master's theses altogether, and two of those weren't even published. There were also thirty-one PHD theses or dissertations, one of which was unpublished, and three of which are from the University of East Anglia. The Masters citations have been added to the IPCC's questionable citations list. Here is the list below:
Working Group I:
Crooks, S., 2004: Solar Influence On Climate. PhD Thesis, University of Oxford.
Foster, S.S., 2004: Reconstruction of Solar Irradiance Variations for use in Studies of Global Climate Change: Application of Recent SOHO Observations with Historic Data from the Greenwich Observatory. PhD Thesis, University of Southampton, Faculty of Science, Southampton, 231 p.
Oram, D.E., 1999: Trends of Long-Lived Anthropogenic Halocarbons in the Southern Hemisphere and Model Calculations of Global Emissions. PhD Thesis, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 249 pp.
Eyer, M., 2004: Highly Resolved δ13C Measurements on CO2 in Air from Antarctic Ice Cores. PhD Thesis, University of Bern, 113 pp.
IPCC cites boot cleaning guide for Antarctica tour operators
Evidence of climate change
No that headline is not a joke. The IPCC cited a guide for Antarctica tour operators on decontaminating boots and clothing. Here it is.
The reference is in the Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II, section 15.7.2 Economic activity and sustainability in the Antarctic. The claim is:
"The multiple stresses of climate change and increasing human activity on the Antarctic Peninsula represent a clear vulnerability (see Section 15.6.3), and have necessitated the implementation of stringent clothing decontamination guidelines for tourist landings on the Antarctic Peninsula (IAATO, 2005)."
The list of questionable IPCC citations
I've created a list to keep track of all the questionable IPCC citations, since they seem to be appearing everyday. If you find a questionable citation, e-mail me or comment on that page and I'll include it.
http://climatequotes.com/scientists/the-ipccs-questionable-citations/
The story of the Geography Major’s Dissertation
Dario-Andri Schwörer
A big story in climate science right now is the fact that the IPCC relied on a mountain magazine and a graduate student's dissertation as their citations for a specific claim in their Fourth Assessment Report. However there are few details, so I decided to do some digging. I found out a bit about the dissertation.
I believe this is the dissertation. It is written by this man, Dario-Andri Schwörer, also here. He was a student at the Geographical Institute of the Universities of Berne and Zurich, which is where he wrote his dissertation in or before 1997. He is now an avid outdoors-men, and a self-described 'well known expert on the impact of climate change in the Alps'. Right now he is engaged in the TOPtoTOP program to promote climate protection.
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