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15Feb/100

Phil Jones’ answers shows that AGW is based on just twenty years of warming

Many climate sites have looked at the recent Phil Jones interview and drawn some conclusions. I think some have drawn a bit more out than Jones' answers provided (not the links above but others), but overall I do agree the interview was groundbreaking. Since others have looked at the interview in its entirety, I'm just going to focus on two questions. These answers show that the AGW theory is based on only twenty years of temperature increases.

Question D - Do you agree that natural influences could have contributed significantly to the global warming observed from 1975-1998, and, if so, please could you specify each natural influence and express its radiative forcing over the period in Watts per square metre.

Jones' response:

This area is slightly outside my area of expertise. When considering changes over this period we need to consider all possible factors (so human and natural influences as well as natural internal variability of the climate system). Natural influences (from volcanoes and the Sun) over this period could have contributed to the change over this period. Volcanic influences from the two large eruptions (El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991) would exert a negative influence. Solar influence was about flat over this period. Combining only these two natural influences, therefore, we might have expected some cooling over this period.